The Corona Crash, as it may be called once the dust has settled, the masks tucked away and the hands are out of the pockets, is a once in a lifetime event for almost all of us. While there are numerous attempts to look at this from the prism of history, to try and predict the future, it remains a fact that the exact situation that we are experiencing now has never been experienced before. Yes there have been many epidemics in the past but never in a hyper connected world with the current medical advances and a set of strong willed leaders in major countries of the world.
There is one thing that does not however change and can perhaps be analysed more closely and that is human behavior. In the first part of this article I attempt to analyse the major behavioral factors involved and in the 2nd I will attempt to don the soothsayer's hat
Major behavioral factors
1. Fear- Fear in human beings invokes a fight or flight response. It has been said this response generated from the oldest part of the human brain influences human actions in the case of a financial crises. This means stress levels increase, Adrenalin flows, reaction time reduces, attention increases and u flight or flee. However for once this is not foremost a financial crises. This is actually something that the even the most primitive of homosapien brains was built for - a matter of life & death.
Fight responses easily identified- Stocking up on essentials - food, soaps & toilet paper (!)
Flight responses easily identified - Rushing to home countries- presumed safe havens and staying indoors
But this very basic human instinct also results in lay-offs, cornering disproportionate resources, selling everything and sitting on cash, etc. The investment managers are used to the sitting on cash and reinvesting when the tide turns. The question to ask is will this response remain the same when the life of our loved ones and perhaps our way of life itself is threatened? Will decision making be truly objective and devoid of what is happening around us? This crises is not just in financial numbers - that being just one of the outcomes. It is often leadership that is the difference between fight vs. flight. If there ever was, this is the time for true leadership.
2. Empathy and Us vs. Them - One of the basis of human civilization is empathy - our ability to feel human pain other than our own. Empathy allows us to co-operate in times of crises and build a civilization. In these times, empathy helps us feel the fear of others but it should also make us respond to that pain and help them.
The other human behavioral trend is to group ourselves in Us v. Them. In the age of nation states this could be our national, ethnic, age or racial identity
So when major countries in the world shut down air routes to China, China protests. However it too does the same later when the infection rates are reducing in China
Some call it a Chinese Virus
Some hoard things to the detriment of others
Some don't take precautions as they are young and possibly immune
The outcome of this war will depend on these two opposite human instincts. Empathetic behavior will ensure we realize that the virus has spread to both us and them and the only way is helping each other out. This means ensuring supply of test kits, safety equipment and medicines to those around us. (us could mean individuals or nations)
3. Self Discipline vs. Enforced Discipline
There are 3 types of behaviors traits we observe among employees
i) The self starters - a much used word to garnish our resumes - essentially people who will do what is required without any outside intervention
ii) The rule/ law followers - those that will follow whatever is told as that is the rule or law
iii) The rebels - Those that revel in challenging the rule or disregarding it
A question that is being posed is which model is better - the enforced discipline in certain countries with communist or authoritative governments or the self discipline requested in many liberal countries where the mortality is rising. The answer may lie in the % of population with the 3 different traits & the overarching culture of the place - copy pasting solutions may not work. If I were to hazard a guess from our work places majority of us fall in category 2 i.e. Rules are required. Category 1 takes care of itself, irrespective of rules. The solution may also lie ensuring the 3rd category of people are made to put their energies to good use, if you feel nothing will happen to you - perhaps volunteering in a place of need is better use of your time than loitering around.
4. Innovation & Jugaad- One fight response to a crises is innovation and the human ability to think his / her way out of a crises. Traditional wars after all have been the times of greatest innovation. Innovation requires at times individual human ingenuity and enterprise and in that sense cannot be enforced. This is as much a fundamental human behavior and at times countries with greater % of category 3 (in pt 3 above) people could have higher propensity to find out of the box solutions. We need to ensure they get the resources to come up with these solution.
- An INR 7500 stripped down ventilator machine (i.e. ~CAD 150) is one such example of Indian jugaad
5. Changing Habits- A lot of this fight involves changing habits. Changing habit involves an habit loop, this means removing triggers causing the bad habits and a reward when you cultivate / execute a good one. We need to quickly find what those rewards are going to be, if we want the new habits of social distancing, washing hands, being empathetic to take root. As much as enforcement by stick we will need the reward of appreciation to be felt. So besides clapping in balconies, we need to appreciate every time the right habit is practiced around us and remove the negative triggers post identifying them. E.g. If putting hand-sanitizer bottles at building entrances, public places and multiple rooms triggers the habit of usage - we need to evaluate and push the practice.
Ultimately in various research reports and articles we read, an attempt is made to understand the probability of winning the war and that too quickly and as to when things will return to normalcy and what the new normal could look like.
In Part II I will don my soothsayers hat and hope to look at potential outcomes from the prism of human behavior.
Authors Note. - The post is heavily influenced by the books I have read over the years viz. Sapiens, Homo Deus, The power of habit, Factfulness: The hour between dog and wolf, etc. and in that sense is not original.
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